India and the new Eurasia: In light of China-Russia alliance and Ukraine conflict.

What the term "New Eurasia" represents?

"New Eurasia" is a term that has been used in various contexts, but it generally refers to the idea of a new political, economic, or cultural alignment in the region of Eurasia. This can include ideas such as a re-emergence of Russia as a dominant power in the region, the integration of various countries in the region into a larger economic and political bloc, or the emergence of new cultural or ideological trends in the region.

What is the Changing Geopolitics between Asia and Europe?

India’s mounting security challenges from China on the Himalayan frontier and India’s continental strategy will become tougher in the coming era. On the other side, the possibilities for strengthening India’s strategic capabilities in partnership with the US and Europe as well as Japan, South Korea and Australia have never been that stronger.

Japan is determined to build strong military partnerships with Europe. For Japan the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific is indivisible. South Korea is also joining the party by raising its profile in Europe. For example, it is selling major weapons platforms in Poland. Australia has joined the US and UK in the AUKUS arrangement and is equally eager to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific. Together Japan, South Korea and Australia are bridging the divide between Asia and Europe which was once seen as separate geopolitical areas. Moreover, the partnership between Asia and Europe has increased by Russia’s war in Ukraine and due to the alliance between Russia and China.

What are all the Factors that impact Geopolitics of Eurasia?

The internal political evolution of Eurasian state:Post-Communist states have not settled on a sustainable political path. In Central Europe and the Baltic States, the transition to liberal democracy appeared to be quick. While many other former Soviet republics drifted into the rule of strong men. Both models are under stress as democratic backsliding in Hungary and Poland challenges the norms of the European Union.

The weaknesses of economic globalisation:Despite being resource-rich and embracing economic globalisation, the leaders of Central Asian republics like Kazakhstan have ensured an inequitable society.

The limitations of regional institutions: The hope that regional institutes contributing to the stability of post-communist states have not been met. Even after joining the EU, the eastern and western halves of Europe are vastly different. Several issues related to the Rule of Law, migration, energy and geopolitics act as dividing factors. There is also resentment in the eastern half about the domination of the western half on EU policymaking. Russia has launched the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation to re-establish its primacy in Eurasia, but has not been successful yet. Russia joined SCO with China, to bring stability in the Central Asian region.

The constraints on powers to shape the post-Russian space: To lessen their dependency on Russia, many former members of the Soviet Union are engaging with all major powers to strengthen their strategic autonomy, which Nazarbayev called “multi-vector diplomacy”. But still, countries like Kazakhstan are dependent on Russia, when any crisis arises. In Ukraine Conflict, Russia prefers to negotiate with the USA rather than the EU. In Kazakhstan, Russia has shown it remains the main security provider despite the considerable economic salience of China. Hence, major economic power such as the EU and China have been unable to shape the political and security dynamic in Eurasia.

What are the Implications for India due to the Emergence of New Eurasia?

India could easily cooperate with the maritime coalition (the Quad in the Indo-Pacific) and run simultaneously with the continental coalition led by Russia and China. However, the conflict between the US, Europe, and Japan on the one hand and China and Russia on the other will bring challenges for India in balancing its relation with these countries.

One of the main challenges is China's territorial claims and military expansion in the Himalayas, which has led to increased tensions between the two countries. Additionally, China's economic and military rise has led to concerns about its ability to project power in the Indian Ocean region, which is of strategic importance to India. Furthermore, China's growing influence in neighbouring countries through the Belt and Road Initiative has led to concerns about encirclement and potential threats to India's security.

It has the potential to alter the balance of power in the region in favor of China and Russia, which could have negative consequences for India's security and strategic interests. Additionally, the growing cooperation between China and Russia could lead to increased military and economic coordination, which could further challenge India's position in the region.